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Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Decred is insanely undervalued - A Confluence of Blockchain mechanics and Raw Scarcity

Decred is insanely undervalued - A Confluence of Blockchain mechanics and Raw Scarcity
Decred has caught a burst of long overdue wind today.
Below is my thesis on recent price action drivers and why I think Decred is insanely undervalued right now from an on-chain/blockchain mechanics perspective.
This is an expansion on a tweet I put out here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1190349477120552961
Fundamentally, the project is one of the most undervalued assets in the market and I believe the largest information asymmetry next to Bitcoin. The smart money know this. They have been accumulating. Looking at the volume of DCR moving on-chain, we can see a significant amount of DCR moving in 2019 at the current support range. We know that DCR is always on the move due to tickets so when we see high volume nodes like this, it supports the notion of actual accumulation in addition to the usual transaction flow. We have seen similar growth in the median and mean transaction sizes throughout 2019. Larger wallets, larger DCR purchases.
Update: Note how the 2019 volume node, if just looking at USD chart could be attributed to Dec-Apr period or the recent drawdown. However looking against the BTC chart confirms that the dominant accumulation has occurred during the recent period as the BTC price probes the lows. This is what I consider a high volume zone of support characterised by a large transfer of coins (miners selling, accumulating buyers).
On-chain DCR volume profile plotted against price for BTC (black) and USD (blue)
The recent price action drawdown in my opinion is a result of Miners going too hard to fast. ASICs were introduced in early 2018 and we see an explosion in PoW Difficulty. Mining is a leveraged play for DCR and in this case is unlike what occurred for BTC in that it was almost four years until ASICs were on the scene for Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoins naturally high early inflation had time to disperse before ASICs and serious hardware investment came online. ASICs are capital intensive, not hobbyist grade meaning coins mined must necessarily become coins sold.
We can compare the insane growth in Decred mining since Jan 2018 against the market to see this on a relative scale. Mind you, this is a bullish signal. Miners are committing heavy capital to the Decred chain security. They have done their due diligence and have high conviction. That is not something to ignore.
Full tweet on this here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1177650799050133504
Normalised difficulty growth (left) since Jan 2018 and (right) 2019 Year to Date
As miners over-extend without support of price appreciation, they must sell more coins to pay bills. Eventually the weak miners have to capitulate and difficulty ribbon squeezes as mining equipment is switched off. We have seen this play out for Bitcoin where squeezing of the difficulty ribbon indicates a valuable period for accumulation. Willy Woo talks about this here https://woobull.com/introducing-the-difficulty-ribbon-the-best-times-to-buy-bitcoin/.
What happens next is that the strong miners gain an increasing share of the hashrate. Their energy is thus rewarded with more DCR and so they can sell less of their income and Hodl more. This effectively begins to constrain supply rather than the oversaturation during capitulation. Over time this leads to a reversal in price action which further perpetuates the effect.
Price of a scarce asset must appreciate with reduced circulating supply assuming demand relatively remains stable or increases.
Decred total cumulative block subsidy paid (price x block reward DCR) and Difficulty ribbon
This is actually very healthy for Decred. Coins are being distributed by miners en-mass right now, nullifying the risk of miners holding too high of a supply within the staking system leading to centralisation. I would argue that this distribution of coins is one of the most important and bullish signals long term. We know that miners stake as well and thus they are able to generate income on Hodled coins. I expect this to actually soften the degree of miner capitulation as they can turn off power whilst still generating income.
For this reason, I do not suspect we will see photos of mountains of Decred ASICs being thrown out as we saw for Bitcoin in 2018. The machines are simply put on hold until price reverses to justify power consumption. This is a valuable business feasibility case for miners and a feature of long term sustainability in the chain security.
Decred Resilience
This is where the elegance of Decred resilience steps in.
As miners slow, supply saturates, price drops.
DCR Tickets become cheaper.
Stakeholders step in and accumulation begins.
The Ticket Price hit an ATH of 140+ DCR as Stakeholders begin accumulating and commit capital to secure the chain. The Hybrid PoW/PoS system works as a counter balance. When price is in a strong uptrend, stakeholders are provided an exit to capitalise on gains as miners have a strong case for expanding their operations (PoW dominant security). During price drawdowns, miners drop out and the cheap DCR stimulates Hodlers buying and locking capital which locks down available supply from attackers. An attack would thus drive price higher and the cycle repeats.
As above, showing the total DCR locked in tickets hits an ATH as price drops due to miner capitulation
PermabullNino made the observation that Decred functions as an elegant yet robust accounting system. His discussion on block subsidies are shown in the charts above and linked here https://medium.com/@permabullnino/decred-on-chain-a-look-at-block-subsidies-6f5180932c9b.Decred has a has past, present and future cash flows distributed to those who support it most. This puts Decred security in good hands- Miners 60%- Stakeholders 30%- Builders 10%
Price is currently hovering around the PoW total subsidy paid (red line) and means miners are indeed feeling the squeeze as this is the cost basis of all DCR paid to date. Once you factor in overheads and capital costs, it makes sense we are seeing DCR supply distribution. The last time we saw price dip to this line was early in Decreds history and was followed by a rapid repricing.
We now have three mechanisms at play which will act to constrain supply
  • Miners are distributing heavily but eventually will switch to hodling as the strong miners hash share grows.
  • Stakeholder are absorbing supply en mass and locking in tickets due to relatively cheap prices
  • Inflation rate is in a state of constant reduction
Scarcity
My recent work looking at the Decred stock-to-flow model (which does exist and is convincing, contrary to what the Bitcoin maxi community may want to believe), suggests that DCR is in the oversold range. It has deviated by 1.5 standard deviations from the S2F model mean which is near identical to Bitcoin at 50% supply mined. Historically for Bitcoin and Decred, this has been an opportune period for accumulation. More on this discussion in my tweet here https://twitter.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1184159137564889089
Note that Decred, likely due to the smooth issuance and difference in market awareness, is less volatile than Bitcoin. The significant undervaluation of Bitcoin at 50% mined was due to the first 2012 halving where it was a very different and far smaller market. I would expect DCR to be repriced sooner rather than later as the smart money steps in having now developed Bitcoin hindsight.
Standard deviations of DCR and BTC price from the respective stock-to-flow linear regression models
As a final note, if we look at Decred and Bitcoin market valuations plotted against ratio of 21M coins issued, which normalises for coin age, we see a fascinating similarity in these coins trajectory. Bitcoin was worth $127M at 50% coins mined and Decred was worth $180M. Considering we are in a log scale market, this is practically the same. Decred has achieved this value both benefiting from market awareness and size, but also in the face of heavy (albeit generally ill-equipped) alt-coin competition, quite remarkable.
Decred and Bitcoin Market and Realised Caps and S2F models plotted against ratio of 21M coins mined
Given that Decred has such insanely strong fundamentals, has developed a convincing monetary premium in it's short life and traverses the same stock-to-flow path as Bitcoin, I believe there is immense value flying under the markets radar.
The recent price action drawdown can reasonably be attributed to miners over-extending. However based on both prior Decred behaviour and drawing comparisons to Bitcoin history, there is a strong argument to be made that supply will soon be constrained on multiple fronts and the current value is both highly undervalued and being absorbed by the smart money.
Feedback, counter-points and discussions welcome.
Cheers,
CM.
submitted by __checkmatey__ to decred [link] [comments]

Coin Trade Base Exchange; The Leading Global Blockchain and Multi sided Crypto Exchange

Increase in the acceptability of cryptocurrency around the world has resulted to an increase in the number of cryptocurrency exchange platforms. A cryptocurrency or digital currency is a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange that uses cryptography to secure its transactions, to control the creation of additional units, and to verify the transfer of assets. Cryptocurrency exchanges or digital currency exchanges (DCE) are businesses that allow customers to trade cryptocurrencies or digital currencies for other assets, such as conventional fiat money , or different digital currencies.
On many present cryptocurrency exchanges, different digital currencies are used to trade against one other and the challenges faced by traders is high transaction charges; which greatly reduce their profits, security, bad users’ interface, and several payment options. To the best of our knowledge, there is no cryptocurrency exchange with zero or low transaction charges and no or less number of cryptocurrency exchange platforms accepting both crypto currency, fiat currency, paypal, perfect Money or gift cards as means of exchange for bitcoins and altcoins. To solve these major challenges facing the Traders and Investors, Coin Trade Base (CTB) Cryptocurrency Exchange is founded by an international team of cryptocurrency, finance, and technology Experts. Coin Trade Base (CTB) exchange is a cryptocurrency exchange platform with advanced security, simplified users’ interface and zero or low transaction charges. CTB exchange is safe, efficient, and users’ friendly.
On CTB Exchange, you can trade CTB token and other different digital currencies against one another with zero or low transaction charges. On CTB Digital-to-Fiat Escrow Exchange, you can trade all local fiat currencies and gift cards against CTB token and some standard cryptocurrencies anywhere in the world. This will provides more opportunity for traders and investors in the cryptocurrency world. Coin Trade Base will revolutionize the cryptocurrency exchange. We want to change the game and significantly increase the rate of cryptocurrency trading and adoption rate of cryptocurrencies. Our products and servicees make it safe and easy for people and corporates to store, sell, buy, use and learn about cryptocurrencies.
https://preview.redd.it/jqwfb5wwyd611.jpg?width=1956&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3be0508180d15e585d4c0768e1b57b9df2fc51e0
Our Team
Our team has been deeply involved in the cryptocurrency community for years and we understand that the interest of the users should be first and must be protected.
Existing Problems
1. Security
As the cryptocurrencies industry is getting more matured day-by-day, it is paramount the traders, ordinary persons and investors are able to safeguard and exchange their coins and tokens without any hiccup. It’s no doubt exchanges (for this kind of a purpose) are sprouting at a rate which is proportional to the crypto-industry growth. However, security, active support system, fiat gateway, among others still remain very big issues.
2. Digital to fiat exchange
Digital-to-fiat exchange difficulty is a serious issue plaguing the industry as users often need to use two or more exchanges (controlled by two or more different parties) if they want to redeem their digital assets for fiats and fiats for their digital assets. This comes with stress, dissatisfaction and usurious charges.
3. Complex users interface
Most cryptocurrency exchanges have complex user’s interface, and this makes it difficult for beginners to access and understand. This has made the active participation in the cryptocurrency trading difficult for them.
4. Speed
Speed and accuracy are important factors in the exchange of digital assets. Most current cryptocurrency exchanges are slow due to the influx of more users into their platforms, and it is so unfortunate that some are not designed to scale to meet such demand. This, in turn, frustrates the users and has negative effects on their orders which, eventually, affect their profits and outputs.
5. High transaction and withdrawal charges
Almost all exchanges charge the traders for transaction fees. Most charges a usurious fee, which greatly affects the traders’ profits and saddens ordinary persons(who just want to exchange their digital assets); and these outrageous fees are significantly different from the actual miners’ fees.
6. Hedges
Most traders face challenges on hedging on most cryptocurrecny exchanges with our Cryptocurrency Escrow Trading Platform you can convert your coin to your local currency.
Solutions
Why you should choose CoinTradeBase (CTB) Exchange
1. Advanced Security
Cryptocurrency exchanges handling users’ funds and data have to be secured. In the past, many security breaches leading to the loss of funds and data have been recorded in most exchanges. To make Coin Trade Base secure and ensure an absolute safety of the users’ funds, a multi-factor, dynamic, and authentication mechanism — to sensitive operations like withdrawal, etc — is adopted, and funds are held in a secure cold storage. This provides maximum security for our users. To boot, wallets in the platform have adopted multiple security levels of storage solution in line with their storage scale, and utilized cold storage and encrypted databases. We have stored the micro-withdrawal wallets in the private network architecture which has multi-layer firewall on the basis of security isolation. Thus, financial safety on this platform is taken diligently with utmost professionalism.
2. Low or no transaction fees
Most exchange platforms charge exorbitant fees on every transaction, and this is seriously affecting the users’ profit. However, on Coin Trade Base, there are low or no transaction charges. As a result, our users gain more outputs.
3. Simplified user’s interface
One of our aims is to make cryptocurrency trading and exchange easier for both the beginners, ordinary persons, and the professional traders. Coin Trade Base’s interface is simply designed, easy to access and understand, and facilitate cryptocurrency trading more than other older and clunky exchanges.
4. Unlimited high performance and worldwide presence
Coin Trade Base is a powerful and reliable platform built to withstand the present and future cryptocurrency market. Our exchanges’ servers will be powerful and dynamic to handle millions of transaction per second (according to the future market demand). Therefore, we can guarantee that there will be no delay or lag throughout the whole core order process when the market booms. CTB servers are located in global regions: Asia, America, Europe, Australia, Africa and more, and there will be fast server responses wherever the users are.
5. Active 24/7 customer support services
At CTB, we value our users and have put in place 24/7, professional and friendly customer support team members, who are ready to attend to our users’ needs at any time of the day, without any delay. CTB will offer customer services through different means including webpage, hotline, e-mail and social media. As the number of users grows, so does the customer support team grow simultaneously.
Features of CoinTradeBase Exchange
1. Push Notification
As we know that cryptocurrency market is very volatile and most traders always want to keep an eye on the market, we have implemented different push notifications to make trading easier for the traders by keeping them abreast of changes in the market. The push notifications allow:
To set price alerts for different coins.
To receive alerts when order is executed or partially filled.
To receive price-change alerts.
To create alerts for prices below or above your choice prices e.t.c.
2. Indicators
Market indicators are the mostly used statistical quantities that best traders use to predict the best behavior of the cryptocurrency markets at critical moments, and take timely actions to make profits from their prediction. CTB will cover the best evolutionary indicators for the trader to make informed decisions at various times.
3. Charts
This allows traders to study market pyschologies at various times, and give an insight on the history of different markets.
4. API Solutions
CTB exchange offers best and easy to use API solutions for market data on major cryptocurrencies. There is an availability of API that aggregates data from many exchanges. This will afford users opportunity to make informed decisions.
5. Conversion of CTB to all local currencies
CTB will support a lot of fiat currencies. On our Cryptocurrency Escrow Trading Platform, users will be able to convert their cryptocurrencies to their local currency (fiat currencies) anywhere in the world. In addition, on the Cryptocurrency Escrow Trading Platform, people will be able to trade all local fiat currencies against CTB token and some standard cryptocurrencies and tokens anywhere in the world. This will provide ample equal opportunity for traders and investors in the cryptocurrency world, most especially on the CTB exchange platform.
Products
i. Digital-to-fiat Escrow Exchange
ii. Digital-to-digital Exchange
Other Product fromCoin Trade Base
i. Decentralized Exchange
submitted by Cointradebase to u/Cointradebase [link] [comments]

Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call

As originally published via CoinLive
I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets.
At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time.
Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY
USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread
EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment
Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long?
USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread
The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF.
Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to:
Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating.
While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis.
I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary.
If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year.
Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger
The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled The Paradox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets."
However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass.
Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b.
Interest Rates Set to Rise Further
First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging."
Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png)
Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve.
While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode.
Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png)
Deutsche Bank - End of the Road?
Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states:
"One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%."
There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models.
One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below:
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png)
Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png)
Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences
Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals.
Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports.
Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years.
As the author states:
"I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commodities haven not been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. "
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png)
Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run
It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018.
The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below:
"Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place."
Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course."
It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments.
Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility
Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital.
Anyone Can Be Wrong Datadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone
Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March.
"It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When."
Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line.
On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
submitted by Ivo333 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

GoWithMi Advantages

GoWithMi Advantages
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submitted by Disel18 to IcoStatus [link] [comments]

FCoin Sharing Session Q&A — 07/23/2018

FCoin Founder Mr. Zhang Jian Addressed the Most Controversial Questions about FCoin since its Launch.
(July 23, 2018) FCoin held an online media Q&A session on Monday with its founder, Mr. Zhang Jian replying the most controversial questions on FCoin, a digital asset trading platform that was launched barely two months ago but has already become the most talked about phenomenon in the industry.
These controversial topics include FCoin’s efforts in token-reforming, the general concept of token economy, the fluctuation of FCoin price and response to the recent negative comments and accusations made by Binance on FCoin. A complete Q&A could be found as below:
Q1: We have seen many new announcements issued by FCoin with lots of new concepts. Could you first elaborate on FCandy? Why do you start to return in FCandy instead of FT, what’s the strategy behind it? What do you think is the true value of FCandy and what is your expected price for it?
Answer1: Regarding FCandy, we mentioned before in our announcement that it is an assert pool in which all kinds of assets could be placed in. We actually have placed lots of FTs during the first round. What do we mean by “placing”, basically it’s equivalent to donation and what is its true value? I think it could benefit our entire community through our donation. It is clearly stated in our announcement that any digital assets could be placed in FCandy and FCandy will be issued according to a certain proportion, but to guarantee the real asset value of FCandy. However, the assets placed in FCandy pool no longer belong to those who place the assets but to the entire community which makes FCandy vitally different from the other asset pools or various products. We designed a lot of ways to give out FCandy to our community members. It doesn’t mean that we no longer return in FT, 100% transaction fee is still returned in FT, this is our set rule which will never be changed. Which are some of the situations where we will not return in FT? Anything but “Trans-fee mining” mechanism. Because all the other mechanism is simply activities. Like our referral programs, incentive programs and etc. These are community activities with the aim to motivate the communities and bring more benefits, so these are the responsibility that FCandy should assume. I do not need to elaborate on the value of FCandy. I encourage everyone to see the front page of FCandy in which the amount of assets are clearly indicated. In the future, a large number of project participators will place their assets into this pool. We will also initiate voting system and community members could vote on whether we should sell part of the assets and these sold asserts will belong to FCandy holders, similar to the concept as dividends. But this will be a plan in the far future, not to be realized recently. Regarding the price of FCandy, I cannot comment on this. Based on the asset pool, everyone can gauge its reasonable price range.
Q2: What’s the latest listing rules? Is the new FOne trading zone transferring the token-listing right to the certified organizations? What’s the FCoin’s standard in selecting a certified organization? What’s the difference in the responsibilities and rights of these certified organizations compared to the ones in the Stock market?
Answer 2: Some adjustments were made on the listing rules with the launch of FOne. What made us launch FOne? Actually, we have encountered some problems when doing GPM, i.e there is a long list of projects waiting to be listed which is far beyond the capacity of the platform itself. Most importantly, we encounter the problems of verifying its authenticity. Hence, in order to make the entire mechanism work better, the essence of FOne is to let FCoin certified organizations to screen quality projects. Every certified organization has its own zone that has the right to list tokens and set its own listing rules. We provide service and technical support to various certified organizations. This relationship will guarantee a healthy growth of FOne. As for the rights and responsibilities, these are vitally important as well. Since these trading zones are opened by certified organizations, they have the responsibility to guarantee the quality of its listing projects. FCoin retains the rights to review and verify the performance of these certified organizations and details will be released soon. We really hope that good projects could stand out from this innovative mechanism and this will help motivate the entire industry. Regarding the selection standards for the certified organizations, these are mainly the mainstream token fund in the industry. Easy to get in but difficult to get out. First of all, these organizations need to have certain reputation in the industry. We welcome them to join us as our certified organizations in the beginning but more strict standards will be launched later. In addition, we will also have control over the organization list and eliminate those who are not up to our standards. We will soon announce the list of our second batch of certified organizations. The entire crypto industry is not yet mature and it’s currently a mix of everything. We are trying to introduce step by step some mature models to break through the mess. We are on our way to a revolutionary future
Q3: Is FOne the trial zone of token-reforming for FCoin? What is the difference about listing rules and circulation mechanism between Main Board A & B? As a mature product or company, what are the necessary steps for token-reforming and what are the biggest difficulties and challenges during the process? Are there any successful cases on token-reforming before? To a mature community, the compliance and legitimacy of listing can be a sensitive topic, is this going to be a key obstacle for the improvement of token-reforming trial zone? How will you solve this problem? In your opinion, which industries will make progress first during Coin-reforming trial zone?
Answer 3: The answer to the first question is NO. It has clearly been stated in the announcement that token-reforming is not made by FOne. Token-reforming is in main Board C, right now we have main Board A & B; the mature blockchain projects are in main board A, and emerging projects in board B, while the token-reforming projects are in board C. FOne is the successor of the previous Innovation Zone on GPM with the aim to support startup projects. After the upgrading of the overall positioning, GPM will focus on supporting the long-term projects while the startup projects will move to FOne. FOne will transfer the listing power to certified organizations in order to attract more quality projects to get in in the early stage. As a matter of fact, token-reforming is not all that easy. We have just released an announcement on which a new project was applying to get listed on our main board C, of course there are many other projects doing so as well. We have to consider the project in a comprehensive manner, from the preparation, the qualification of the projects to the business model or the maturity of the business Situations(applications). There might be two ways for reforming, such as QOS, the one project that we have been observing and providing the technical support. It has applied to get listed on our main board C. QOS is a typical blockchain project with mature business applications and massive users, along with a solid preparation process. This kind of project is well prepared, that’s why it can enter the final verification and listing schedule stage very soon; as for some other projects, although they come from a mature company, they do not really understand the token economy, the listing process might take longer. In my opinion, we have to go through an important process to acknowledge the token economy, token and coin; Second, about how reforming can make a great influence, and connect its previous- designed products with business module, aligned them well and solve its previous conflicts of interest. That’s why reforming is quite difficult and challenging. To sum up I think there are two biggest difficulties for reform. First is the whole design of token economy model — it means completely different for different products or companies, even with different approaches , thus, quite challenging. Second is the overall interest arrangement. A mature product must face mature interest arrangement, including shareholder structure, existing resources and how to solve these problems. It requires of massive communication as well as knowledge and determinations to get all these problems solved. These two are the most difficulties we currently face. For the sensitive question about compliance, I think all innovations will face a certain kind of risk, the more subversive the innovation, the higher risk it may face, especially like token economy, as its target and core is to change the market relationships. It’s quite subversive and will meet lots of challenges never that have never been met before. Why people like to talk about the first person who eat the crab? If there is no challenges, people would just repeat doing things they have done like a hundred times before, but it’s not the case here. If you are willing to seize the opportunity of the new economy, you need to take risks and accept the challenges. I think it’s a trend for the future and it’s unstoppable. In addition, I don’t think it’s a key obstacle for a product or a company that are determined to explore in this direction. What I mentioned before are quite essential, firstly it has to be in the internet industry and financial industry, or the combination of these two, such as the finance technology. There are lots of opportunities within, so are in some other industries.
Q4: There are several institutions dabbling in Blockchain+Insurance model, however, this model has still not been widely applied. Therefore, will this new Insurance community FInsur just a publicity stunt? Is “Insurance is mining “ just some benefits to attract users, or is it a mutual insurance based on blockchain technology? How does this model work?
Answer 4: FInsur for sure is not publicity stunt. A lot of people doubted about FCoin when it first came out, is FCoin a publicity stunt? With the concept of “Trans-fee mining” being widely spread and recently became a trend, it is obvious that we are not a publicity stunt, otherwise it won’t show such a strong vitality. Therefore, the concept of “insurance is mining “is quite simple. I would like to repeat it again, it’s similar to FCoin essentially. What is the concept of “Trans-fee mining”? Clients and users of an exchange are the traders. As the core concept of token economy, I think the main targets of business service, is like the relationship between an exchange and its users, which is in opposite relationship. We hope that after the reforms by token economy, it can be an untied relationship, even for the sake of common interest. So let the traders be the shareholders of FCoin, that is the essence of “Trans-fee mining”. Likewise, let the insurance applicant become the shareholder of an insurance company, or at least make their interest consistent rather than conflicting (money-making vs money-losing), which is a long-term target for us, and also my initial intention. It’s hard to image vehicles on road without insurances. That’s why there is compulsory insurance like Compulsory Traffic Insurance and commercial insurance that we must pay. It also applies to ourown digital currencies & assets. Therefore, I don’t think FInsur is a publicity stunt, but will be a benchmark for innovation in this industry and bring in massive benefits.
Q5: How about the operation of stabilization funds launched by FCoin? Is this stabilization funds really effective on regulating the dramatic market fluctuation and keeping the price of FT stable?
Answer 5: We have just wrapped up a one-month life cycle of the Stabilization fund Phase I and it is already in the process of balancing, not running any more. I am not the one who has proposed the concept of stabilization fund. I have repeatedly said that for an emerging trading product or an emerging market, especially when it has great innovations, nobody knows how to price it correctly in the early stage. It will also suffer from all kinds of malicious attacks and various rumors under such a complicated market situation. Hence, the market fluctuations will be very dramatic in the short term. The stabilization fund was launched in this context. Can this fund really keep the market volatility stable? This mainly depends on the factors of market volatility and various other situations. The stabilization fund will certainly ease the dramatic fluctuations of the market. But will the price stop to fluctuate with the funds? Or will the price not rise and fall sharply? This is uncertain. Since the market price, especially short-term market behavior, is very complicated and thus very difficult to predict. So the fund can only ease the dramatic fluctuations. As some unstable factors are gradually eliminated, or as the platform matures, these unstable factors will be disappearing slowly. Say, there are huge trust issues in the earlier stages, however, as the platform continues to grow, these problems will be reduced accordingly. Now everyone feels that FCoin is a very reliable platform which has been working so hard to make the platform, the community and the whole ecosystem bigger. In this case, those difficulties that we encounter before won’t exist anymore. Our risk control in the early stage might not be that sharp, leading to the existence of some malicious short-selling and other hostile situations. With the gradual improvement and maturity of our backend monitoring system, I believe there will be less risks in this aspect. Therefore, the whole market will gradually become more healthy in the long run.
Q6: You mentioned that the explosive effect of FCoin is a victory for the “tokenomics.” Can you share with us your understanding of the “tokenomics”? What is its strong driving force? What distinguishes it from the traditional business model and incentive mechanism?
Answer 6: It is very hard for me to talk about my understanding of the tokenomics, since this topic is too big. But I can talk about some key points, such as what I just mentioned, “What is the strong driving force?” I just mentioned that the distinguished difference between the structure of the tokenomics design and the traditional business model and incentive mechanism is the reversal of the production relationship. How to reverse? As mentioned earlier, producers and consumers are a pair of relationships. The common form of the Internet is the relationship between the platform and its user. In fact, they are all similar. That is, the relationship between a service provider and a client, or the relationship between a product provider and a consumer. Under the traditional business model, this group of relationships must be antagonistic at the level of interests. Because the mission of a commercial organization is to make money. They earn money from consumers or users. Under the traditional business model, you buy any goods, or you consume any service, the only relationship between you and the service provider and the producer of the goods is that you pay him. Let us think about the reason why this commercial system can exist. It is because these users are paying so that the commercial system can exist. In other words, these consumers and users are the basis for the existence of this commercial system. But if this commercial system develops bigger, then it has nothing to do with the users which are the basis and premise of the existence of this commercial system. I think this is the problem of the traditional business model, and it will definitely face a big upgrade in the future. The big upgrade has started slowly now, and I think its solution is tokenomics. FCoin is such a practice of tokenomics. We found that as FCoin grows and matures, traders gradually become shareholders of FCoin. The trader not only becomes a user of the platform, but also contributes fees and transactions. At the same time, he can also get 100% return of the exchange’s “shares” FT. The returned FT can enjoy FCoin’s income distribution forever, and it is 80% of the income distribution. This is unimaginable in the traditional capital market. Let me give you an example. In the traditional capital market, basically everyone does not pay attention to dividends because they are so little. There are too many companies that don’t pay dividends all along the year. Everyone can check the dividends of the traditional market which are so little and nobody concerns about the dividends. The timeliness of dividends distribution is also executed poorly. As the price of crypto currency fluctuates dramatically, users do not feel the power of our model in the early stages. With the maturity of FCoin, they feel that our model of income distribution is extremely revolutionary. Firstly, its proportion of dividends distribution is so large. How about the traditional listed companies? They distribute neither revenues nor profits. It is possible that the companies might need to keep enough cash for development, so they do not distribute dividends. FCoin directly distribute income to users, the vast majority 80% of our revenues on a daily basis. This is an absolutely revolutionary concept in the traditional capital market. Because the entire concept of the so-called financial system and finance of the crypto industry has not yet been established, and it is still relatively chaotic, the crypto industry is still at a very early stage for the pricing and cognitions. The creation and power of FCoin and FT takes time to show, as I always say “let the bullets fly for a while.” The same is true for FInsur. I hope that in the future, various new models based on the creation of the tokenomics or the transformation of the original model will have the power to make our customers consistent with our interests . I have to say one more thing. I think that this power is actually much underestimated. Because once the production relationship changes, once the service provider and the client are in the same interests, the whole decision-making process, the starting point and mentality of decision-making, all community-based architecture and all future mechanism design and gameplay will change. I am appreciating this in a more in-depth sense now. Therefore, the future of the tokenomics will definitely show great vitality. It will have a huge impact on the original business model, commercial design and corporate system. This is my judgment on the future.
Q7: Many exchanges are allegedly using bots wash trading and their users are mostly zombie users who have no practical effect. Could you please tell us about how would FCoin gradually increase the number of real users so as to make the platform grow in a more healthy manner?
Answer 7: Time will prove everything. We are constantly upgrading and innovating. Everything we do is to make our various mechanism work in a more robust way. The number of FCoin users and daily transactions continue to grow and FCoin is definitely on the right track. Many people are still accusing us of hiring bots to do wash trading. As our platform matures, there is more Quantitative transaction going on which provides real benefits for our community members. If you pay attention to our recent changes on the platform, you could definitely feel it.
Q8: What has FCoin revolutionized the industry in terms of the rules, both the unspoken rules and the apparent rules?
Answer 8: First, I will talk about the unspoken rules. The biggest difference between FCoin and all the other exchanges is that when you open our front page, you could clearly see that almost all our data are transparent and as we continue to develop our products and enhance users experiences, the level of our transparency will only be elevated accordingly. This is something you cannot imagine in traditional industries. No company, in our times, would announce its revenue because they do not need to distribute their profits to their users. But we are different, we cannot fake our data. If you are a black box i.e a company that does not need to disclose data to the public, you actually have the opportunity to fake data. I’ve said many time before that it was ridiculous to accuse FCoin of bots wash trading. We simply cannot fake any data as otherwise we will not have enough funds to be distributed to our users. All our data is real and transparent which brings the first revolutionary change of rules in the industry. About the apparent rules. Many users said that FCoin still made a lot of money after they saw the platform had used all kinds of algorithms. But what I want to point out is that why not take a look at other exchanges that make huge amount of money but still give back nothing to its users? On our side, FCoin distribute 80% of daily revenues to its users and for quite a long period of time, even 100%. After the launch of FCandy, we spend a majority of platform’s daily revenue to buy back FTs which later on are distributed to its community members. I hope you can look further with FCoin. FT certainly has its market cap, but so long as you hold FTs even for just a day, you will be able to get your daily dividend from that day. That’s just the beginning of how FCoin is going to revolutionize this industry. Stay tuned!
Q9: Mr Zhang, you always say that the market will eventually see the value of FT, but the price of FT has been dropping drastically non-stop. Why is there a vast difference between what you see in the value of FT and what the market see it?
Answer 9: FCoin has just been launched for less than 2 months. It’s way too early to talk about the value of a new born thing. For instance, a lot of people asked me about Bitcoin many years ago, at a time when the price of Bitcoin kept dropping from 8,000 RMB to 900RMB. I told them that the value of Bitcoin needed to be evaluated in a 4-year full circle, not just for a few months. If you use a 4-year full circle to draw the candlestick of Bitcoin, what will you see? The short-term price is unpredictable and is being influenced by many factors in the short term, like the market supply, all kinds of different judgments, disapprovals of new things in the early days and even rumors, but in the long run, the price is surely determined by its value. I have some data in FCoin’s front page, our dynamic P/E ratio is 0.56 as of today. You can go to any A-share market to check their P/E ratio, especially those innovative internet companies or high tech companies and judge by yourself. As I mentioned earlier, we have upgraded our Incentive programs, it is now returned with FCandy instead of FT. Because FCandy is highly linked with any activities that benefit the entire community members. This will be our future principles. In the meantime, transaction fee is still returned 100% as in FT and this is some ething, I have reinforced many times, that we won’t change. Why? Because this is our basic model, everything that FCoin is based on which is to make traders as the shareholders of FCoin.
Q10: Mr. Zhang, my questions might come across as a bit of sharp. Two days ago, FCoin announced on its website that the price of FT has been fluctuating drastically and later on, some media reported that the price was being manipulated by a professional team called “Ghost in the Dark” and implied that it had something to do with Binance. Miss He Yi from Binance accused FCoin of paying for media to write negative articles about Binance. Do you have any comments on this? In addition, Mr. Zhao Chang Peng (CZ) from Binance remarked during a media Q&A session in Seoul that “FCoin won’t last long as it is constantly selling new tokens but the price of them keep on dropping.” Do you have anything to say to his remarks?
Answer 10: Your so called sharp questions are actually not sharp at all. First of all, we announced officially on our website that the price of FT encountered abnormal fluctuations because we had found malicious attack from a team that was deliberately short-selling FT and we have proof of it. That’s why some immediate action has been taken to limit the sales order in 3 trading pairs which effectively destroy the botting programming designed by that professional team. As for the media report, I do not want to comment on it, but they did report the same to us through their investigations. About CZ’s comments? Actions speak louder than words. Why does he keep on talking about me if I am not threatening him? This is weird, let the fact speak for itself.
Q11: FCoin has been launched for only 2 months but developed really rapidly with trading volumes topping the chart while it took Binance 3 months to become №1 with real trading volumes. FCoin is very strong with ecosystem, but users’ experience is really bad. No trading depth and the webpage get stuck all the time. The launched app version (still in beta) is even worse than a third-party app while it takes forever to launch an official version. My question is, as a digital trading platform, shouldn’t Trading experiences be respected and focused?
Answer 11: Your question is quite sharp. Trading, in many industries are indeed not well respected, but for FCoin, we have been trying our best to perfect it. There is a process for everything to grow in maturity. If it is something great, it is bound to be less mature in the early stage. More patience please and we welcome everyone to supervise and support us.
[More to the question] — My question of trading not being respected has another sense to it in terms of users’ experience. This should always be put in the priority but with FCoin, it is not the case. It seems that there are always be put in the priority but with FCoin, it is not the case. It seems that there are always things far more important than users’ experience but shouldn’t it be the core for any exchanges?
Answer 11: Apologies for my misunderstanding of part of your question. As for the priority, if you have to choose between platform’s security/stability and users’ experience, which one would you choose? We are still in the initial stage and have been developing really fast. Therefore, we have to contribute tremendously to the security and stability of the platform. The core of a mature exchange is not only about users’ experience. As we all know, we cannot really see an exchange model with the traditional capital market. When you are trading in stock exchanges, it’s the brokers that you see, not the exchanges. That’s why I think currently for us the main focus is still to improve our core strength and in the meantime, to perfect the trading experiences along the way.
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Report I by Stablecoin Research Institute - The Difficulties and Future of Stablecoin

Report I by Stablecoin Research Institute - The Difficulties and Future of Stablecoin
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Bitcoin was originally conceived to be outside the fiat money system as an electronic cash system for a new world. However, at present, the currency standard is still the fiat money standard. The envisaged bitcoin-based settlement system still has no foundation or a wide consensus on the value of the currency standard.
As a compromise, many stablecoins provide a temporary solution for the ecology through a 1:1 anchorage of U.S. dollar, with third-party bank custody becoming mainstream. The rapid growth of Tether and the loss of market share in the face of competition have added more uncertainty to the current market. The decentralization scheme provided by MakerDAO was slightly weak in the initial competition but the reputation gradually accumulated. As the market deepens, cryptocurrencies based on more regional legal currencies are gradually coming online, and people are beginning to try different chain payment attempts.
This article refers to the article Stable Digital Currency Manual by co-founder of Zhibao Mikko, trying to explore the difficulties and future of stablecoin from a currency perspective.

The Difficulties of Bitcoin Settlement System
When it comes to stablecoins, the original idea of Bitcoin has to be mentioned ---- a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Over the past decade, a series of expansions have been made in the blockchain technology and Bitcoin. In people's minds, Bitcoin will be a new generation of the world's monetary system, independent of the fiat money (US dollar) system, to de-intermediate transaction transfers and asset storage, to eliminate asset losses caused by the bank's centralized risk, and put an end to the harvest of wealth brought about by hyperinflation.
In reality, Bitcoin does have somehow established its own trading system - such as black market transactions in the dark network. Dark network commodity trading uses Bitcoin as a medium, and buyers and sellers are also happy to configure a portion of Bitcoin as a value reserve. On the other hand, Bitcoin is the most common trading medium among cryptocurrency exchanges for a long time before the popularity of USDT. Some people said, “Bitcoin is the real stablecoin.” In addition to observing the fluctuations in the value of the fiat money, the traders of various cryptocurrencies will also pay attention to the relationship between cryptocurrency and the bitcoin trading pair. But in this case, this so-called bitcoin-based trading system still has several problems.

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The first is the currency standard: even if some people regard Bitcoin as a gift, they have long believed that Bitcoin will eventually level the volatility and increase the index, but even the so-called beliefs are usually denominated in fiat money (US dollar, Euro, RMB). That is to say, the first problem with Bitcoin is that there is no pricing power. In other words, Bitcoin cannot perform the settlement function extensively in the holder's daily life. The daily benchmarking consensus based on Bitcoin in a wide range is that it doesn't exist at all.
In China, a Coke is 3 RMB, and in the US it is 1 US dollar. The two are under their respective independent settlement systems. If the person in one of the systems happens to come to another system, such as a Chinese who first bought a Coke in the United States, the first reaction is likely to be a cup of 6.71 yuan. Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency does not have a similar settlement system under the independent monetary framework.
In the case that it is not possible to participate extensively in daily pricing, the currency standard is the fiat money standard. For members of the cryptocurrency community, the actual fiat money-based thinking does not directly affect the willingness of buyers and sellers to use Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies for physical purchases, but when Bitcoin’s price against fiat money falls into huge downward fluctuations, it rejects the situation of receiving cryptocurrencies is inevitable.
So the second question directly promotes the strong demand for stablecoins: currency price fluctuations. On the other hand, it should be realized that Bitcoin does not have a complete settlement system and a broad and stable price consensus based on the system; on the other hand, since the initial definition of Bitcoin was an innovation independent of the traditional financial system, even if it is far from the original concept, the community consensus based on the decentralization and token incentives is different from the traditional financial system.
So for a long time, the market could not price bitcoin with the traditional asset framework. The triumph of 2017 has made the society more aware and acknowledged about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency systems. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME has put on bitcoin futures at the end of the year. At the same time as government regulation gradually intervenes, the OTC exchange network outside the market is also getting better and better, and the pricing of bitcoin is starting to break away from fanaticism. At the end of 2017, the isolationism of various countries has become stronger, the pace of interest rate hikes of the FED has sped up, and global asset preferences have also undergone subtle changes towards safe-haven assets. China’s domestic capital has advocated “cash is the king” and Bitcoin has entered a down cycle.
As noted above, upside volatility can also encourage traditional merchants to participate in speculation, but downside volatility has caused most merchants to lose their willingness to treat Bitcoin as a currency. In 2018, with the increasingly strong bear market in the cryptocurrency world, the demand for safe-haven and stable-price trading media in the encryption community has skyrocketed, and countless stablecoin projects have been launched. At the same time, Tether, which occupied the absolute market share of stablecoins in 2017, continued to expand against the trend of black box operations.

Third Party Intermediary - Compromise of Fiat Money Stablecoins
The hot currency-backed stablecoin is undoubtedly a compromise of the cryptocurrency market against traditional currencies.
As Nakamoto said in the Bitcoin White Paper, “trade on the Internet almost requires financial institutions to act as trusted third parties to process electronic payment information. Although such systems work well in most cases, such systems are still endogenously constrained by the weakness of the 'trust based model'... We really need an electronic payment system that is based on cryptography rather than credit, making any parties that have reached an agreement can make payments directly, eliminating the need for third-party intermediaries."
Although the article refers to the payment process in the transaction, it is the same in terms of collateral custody. The trust of third-party financial institutions in this mode is inevitable. Trust means that when the custodian bank secretly misappropriates collateral or bankrupts for any reason, the user's assets will be difficult to guarantee, abbreviated as SPOF single point of failure.
But the good news is that when the market competition is fully carried out, the user as a whole is divided into several different groups, and different fiat money stablecoin products with different audit processes under different banks are used. A single point of failure of an individual project does not affect the continued operation of other stablecoin products; and the community response to a single company's evil or potential evil is greatly magnified as the number of competing products increases.
Taking Tether as an example, the giants who once occupied more than 95% of the market share of the stablecoin market finally ignited the trust crisis in the long-term refusal of transparent auditing, and the market share plummeted. In the foreseeable future, Tether will gradually liberalize its transparency and optimize its relationship with users to maintain its current market share. The stablecoin competing products that continue to enter the market will form a continuous multi-disciplinary force on existing projects in the market to promote market improvement and relief centralized risk.

The Rise and Blockage of Tether
The real rise of stablecoin is actually symbolized by Tether's exponential growth in 2017. From the eve of the dawn of 2017 to the day after 20 months, Tether's market value has skyrocketed from less than $7 million to more than $2.8 billion, a 400-fold increase.

USDT Year Chart (green - currency price; blue - market value)

In 2018, the hot stablecoin market, USDT's exclusive access to the stablecoin, and stablecoin’s widespread dissatisfaction with the rejection of third-party audits attracted many competitors. In March, True USD (TUSD) was transparently managed. The name entered the competition. Around October, stablecoins such as USDCoin (USDC), Gemini Dollar (GUSD) and Paxos Standard (PAX), which had strong background, compliance audit and good asset transparency, went online. At about the same time, perhaps the pressure from friends and merchants has soared. It is a coincidence that Tether has successively experienced a series of scandals and then the price collapsed in mid-October, and evaporated 40% of the market value in the following month. After a series of cycles, the situation gradually eased.
The four consecutive stablecoins mentioned above seized the market share and expanded rapidly in the next few months. In the month before the deadline, Tether's stablecoin market share was stable at around 70%, and the remaining market share was occupied by the top four newcomers. In the process of grabbing the market, there were fluctuations, including the only US compliance encryption. The progress of the USDC issued by the currency exchange COINBASE is the most eye-catching, and its market value accounts for about 10% of the overall stablecoin market at the time of writing.

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A simple conclusion is that Tether can still be stable even after the crisis, thanks to Tether's first-mover advantage in its existing position on global exchanges and the high liquidity it represents. The three basic functions of money are pricing units, value storage, and trading media, while liquidity is their common subtext.
The unit price provided by a currency lacking liquidity cannot obtain broad consensus of money users. The lack of consensus leads to price disorder, and the currency thus loses the valuation value. As a value storage and trading medium, it will miss trading object and depth due to low liquidity and cannot complete the basic function as a currency. Although the new four-dollar collateral stabilized currency occupies its place in the start of the competition with Tether, Tether sits on a whole bull market with a trading history that has a relatively complete trading pair coverage in the world's major exchanges; In addition to the full coverage of the exchange, USDT also has a sound OTC network construction, providing the most direct portal for stocks and potential incremental users. Under the superposition, Tether's endogenous and exogenous liquidity advantages are particularly evident, and even in the case of black box scandals, it can still occupy a fairly strong market share. But with the gradual gradual competition, peer supervision and the gradual enrichment of user-selectable products, Tether's fault-tolerant space for future strategies is not as optimistic as imagined.

HUSD - Self-contained Stablecoins
In response to the October crisis in Tether, the Fire Currency Exchange launched a HUSD Stabilization Coin program.
In this scheme, the Firecoin users will automatically convert to HUSD when they recharge the PAX, TUSD, USDC, and GUSD. HUSD has no actual issuance process, but simply a unit of pricing corresponding to four types of stablecoin recharge. After the user converts one of the stablecoins into HUSD, he or she can freely choose any one to redeem.
The program not only helps users to spread the centralization risk of a single fiat money stablecoin, but also helps the four stable coins to complete the group on the fire currency exchange to cope with the existing liquidity competitive advantage of the USDT. But on the other hand, the user's use of HUSD is based on trust in the fire currency exchange, in other words another single point of failure risk. Therefore, in order to dilute the risk of centralization, it is still necessary to transparently deal with the specific schemes of the fire currency exchange, and the supervision of the fire coins by the community, especially other exchanges.

Decentralization Breakout of Stablecoin
At present, a number of currency-backed stablecoins, led by USDT, cover almost all of the market capitalization and liquidity of the stablecoin market.
In this case, MakerDAO's DAI is extraordinarily precious. The DAI Stabilized Currency System generates a stablecoin DAI through over-collateralization of cryptocurrency. Most of the functions within the system are implemented or planned through the deployment of smart contracts, such as chain generation and redemption of stable coins, management of collateral, and so on. In addition to the DAI as a stablecoin, as a dual currency system, there is another governance currency called MKR in MakerDAO. Governance currency holders support the system's decentralized governance functions while enjoying the overall benefits of the system, and provide additional funding buffers for the system in events such as abnormal currency fluctuations.
In MakerDAO's overall vision, the system first endorses the credit of the stablecoin through the chain of excess collateral, while the interest generated by the credit function (the essence of DAI generated by the mortgage cryptocurrency is a lending process), the collateral under abnormal fluctuations The profit from the flat penalty triggered by Ping and the more financial derivative function to support the system's self-operation.
One of the biggest conflicts between the community and the cryptocurrency collateral currency is the risk exposure of the collateral in the warehouse when the cryptocurrency generates a stablecoin. Although in theory the users of the stablecoin can be separated from the mortgagor, the mortgagor can be a more risk-tolerant group, such as an eager borrower, a professional user of financial instruments, etc., but since the stablecoin is issued The identity of the person itself is subject to a natural limitation based on the degree of risk aversion, and its supply has an additional limit.
On the other hand, there is a limited source of information about Ethereum as a single collateral: the mortgagor is limited to holders of Ethereum. In MakerDAO's plan, the multi-collateral version of the system will gradually improve with iteration, and the achievement of this program will effectively reduce the risk of the MakerDAO collateral asset portfolio and increase the potential DAI generation limit. Ample supply and liquidity of the DAI will help activate the system in more possibilities on the market.

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Compared to the competition between the four newcomers and the USDT, the position of MakerDAO is quite different. If the user's choice between the four newcomers and the USDT is a trade-off between liquidity (product usability) and security, then between USDT and DAI is liquidity (product usability) and decentralized belief. The trade-off. As far as the market is concerned, MakerDAO's dual currency system seems to explain better how the project side can continue the project through the circulation of profits. Many of the fiat money-backed stablecoin projects have always wondered whether they will realize their own coinage rights in the future and thus harm the user's property rights.
As a successful decentralized stablecoin project, MakerDAO is one of the most successful projects on Ethereum. This is both a tribute to the MakerDAO development path: the development of other projects (dApp) on the Ethereum and the overall robustness of the ecology. As the second generation of the public chain, Ethereum pioneered the concept of smart contract, which is a milestone in the development of application on the chain. However, in the course of many years of development, the performance of the main network and the fragmentation technology have been delayed. So although MakerDAO claims that DAI will have many chain advantages as ERC20 tokens, it seems that the eApp side of Ethereum has not seen a good development momentum.
It is worth mentioning that in the performance of the public chain and dApp development, the EOS public chain has developed rapidly since the launch of the main network in 2018. If EOS has a stablecoin project like MakerDAO, and can properly handle potential security issues in the operation process (such as the potential risks caused by the scalability of the contract, etc.), there is much to be done. After all, in addition to seeking cooperation under the chain, the pricing system of cryptocurrency is more important to find and create niches that belong only to the world of cryptocurrency. A robust dApp ecology with a constant need for stable coins or the only possible form of this niche.

Choice Outside the U.S. Dollar
The few stablecoins currently circulating the most are anchoring the US dollar. There is no doubt that the status of the dollar in the current world currency system is irreplaceable. The bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies described in the beginning of the article lack the independent settlement system, and the US dollar is the extreme of the other end – the currency with the most complete settlement framework in the world.
From the gold standard to the Bretton Woods system, to the current global commodity and foreign exchange trading system centered on the US dollar-oil trading system, the three functions of currency pricing, storage and circulation are reflected in the US dollar. As the currency with the most universal purchasing power and deep trading depth, the US dollar has naturally become the primary anchor for many stablecoins that pursue international influence. The dependence of the stablecoin on the US dollar is a last resort. While stabilizing the dollar, the stablecoin not only enjoys the liquidity advantage brought by the dollar, but also inherits the volatility risk of the dollar itself. Although the US dollar is still the most trustworthy currency on a macro level, if A's main payment scenario is in Country A, and Country A's currency has a large appreciation of the US dollar due to market factors, then the asset holding the anchored US dollar. Bringing a higher base point risk to A.
Among the many non-US dollar currencies, the yen is one of the most distinctive currencies. The Japanese government has a positive attitude towards blockchain technology. In April 2017, it recognized the legal payment status of Bitcoin and formulated a series of laws and regulations for the exchange. At the same time, Japan is also one of the most active participants in the cryptocurrency market. At the end of 2018, Japanese IT giant GMO Internet announced that it plans to introduce a yen-linked cryptocurrency in 2019 to prepare for the next phase of cross-border settlement. The emergence of a liquid currency-stable yen stablecoin will not only help Japanese crypto community members to better participate in daily market behavior, but also help cross-border currency settlement. In addition, due to Japan’s domestic economic structure, monetary policy has maintained ultra-low interest rates for a long time. Under this premise, investors are more willing to invest in sovereign countries with higher interest rates, especially the United States. When the United States is in turmoil, funds are largely returned to the yen, which has a very low risk attribute, which raises the yen and lowers the dollar. Therefore, the emergence of the yen stablecoin can also provide a better safe haven for holders of USD stabilized coins such as USDT in the potential dollar crisis.
In addition to the yen, the private sector or the government of Australia, the euro zone and other countries are also involved in the development and deployment of their domestic currency stablecoin. While the vast majority will still be a similarly centralized bank hosting model, it should still be seen as an improvement and rationally expecting a more equitable and efficient system.

The Future Direction of the Stablecoin
As mentioned at the beginning of the article, the original idea of the cryptocurrency community for Bitcoin was to create a decentralized financial system that would be independent of the traditional monetary system. However, due to the lack of an independent and complete settlement system, or the lack of a broad currency-based pricing consensus, the cryptocurrency world cannot be formed into a real monetary system, and it has to rely on the attachment to the US dollar or other currencies to achieve long-term scenarios. Valuation of prices in cryptocurrencies, etc. Although Bitcoin itself has the believer of the currency standard, the foundation of the belief is mostly based on the re-exponential rise of the price of the bitcoin, which is still the thinking of fiat money.
Given that there is a consensus that goods can only be denominated in currency A in the payment and settlement system of country A, if the cryptocurrency world wants to form an independent payment settlement system, the best pricing unit for the purchase should be cryptocurrency. The anchoring of the U.S. dollar and other fiat money is just to use the currency attribute (otherwise the currency credit cannot be established), and will destruct the consensus to regard cryptocurrency as the best pricing unit and establish an independent monetary system (the cost of convenience). The power of habit is hard to overcome, and the habit of paying the currency of a chain certainly needs to be achieved by the widespread purchase of assets on the chain. This process requires gradual improvement of the payment scenario between stablecoin systems and dApps.
The cryptocurrency eco-walls we mentioned above are based on the hope of this exclusive chain-based settlement system. The simple dApp on the chain is obviously not enough. We also have two topics to be studied in the chain payment scenario and asset chaining. Users must complete the process from chain to chain and back to chain to integrate cryptocurrency pricing into everyday habitual thinking.
Then, the stablecoin will gradually deepen into people's daily life after several decades, while the banknotes gradually withdraw from the trading scene, and the sub-generation gradually accepts the new cryptocurrency value settlement system.


Reference:
Stable Digital Currency Manual (http://wisburg.com/2018/07/03/稳定数字货币手册/)
submitted by Starteos to eos [link] [comments]

The Strange Birth & History of Monero, Part IV: Monero "as it is now"

You can read here part III.
You can read this whole story translated into Spanish here
This is part IV, the last but not least.
Monero - A secure, private, untreceable cryptocurrency
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0
Notable comments in this thread:
-201: “I would like to offer 1000 MRO to the first person who creates a pool”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6422665#msg6422665)
[tacotime offers bounty to potential pool developer. Bytecoin devs haven’t released any code for pools, and the only existent pool, minergate (in the future related to BCN interests) was closed source]
-256: “Adam back seems to like CryptoNote the better than Zerocash https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/453493394472697856”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6440769#msg6440769)
-264: “update on pools: The NOMP guy (zone117x) is looking to fork his open source software and get a pool going, so one should hopefully be up soon.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6441302#msg6441302)
-273: “Update on GUI: othe from VertCoin has notified me that he is working on it.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6442606#msg6442606)
-356: “Everyone wanting a pool, please help raise a bounty with me here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=589533.0
And for the GUI:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=589561.0”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6461533#msg6461533)
[5439 MRO + 0.685 BTC + 5728555.555 BCN raised for pool and 1652 XMR, 121345.46695471 BCN for the GUI wallet. Though this wallet was "rejected" as official GUI because wallet still has to be polished before building a GUI]
-437: “Yes, most Windows users should see a higher hashrate with the new build. You can thank NoodleDoodle. ”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6481202#msg6481202)
-446: “Even faster Windows binaries have just been uploaded. Install for more hash power! Once again, it was NoodleDoodle.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6483680#msg6483680)
-448: “that almost doubled my hashrate again! GREAT STUFF !!!”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6484109#msg6484109)
-461: “Noodle only started optimization today so there may be gains for your CPU in the future.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6485247#msg6485247)
[First day of miner optimization by NoodleDoodle, it is only May 1st]
-706: “The unstoppable NoodleDoodle has optimized the Windows build again. Hashrate should more than double. Windows is now faster than Linux. :O”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6549444#msg6549444)
-753: “i here tft is no longer part of the project. so is he forking or relaunching bytecoin under new name and new parameters (merged mining with flatter emission curve.) also. what is the end consensus for the emission curve for monero. will it be adjusted."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6561345#msg6561345)
[May, 5th 2014. TFT is launching FANTOMCOIN, a clone coin which its "only" feature was merged mining]
-761: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6561941#msg6561941) [May, 5th 2014 – eizh on emission curve and tail emission]
-791: “As promised, I did Russian translation of main topic.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6565521#msg6565521)
[one among dozens of decentralized and “altruist” collaborators of Monero in minor tasks]
-827: image
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6571652#msg6571652)
-853: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6575033#msg6575033)
[some are not happy that NoodleDoodle had only released the built binaries, but not the source code]
-950: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6593768#msg6593768)
[Rias, an account suspected to be related to the Bytecoin scam, dares to tag Monero as “instamine”]
-957: “It's rather bizarre that you're calling this an "instamine" scam when you're so fervently supporting BCN, which was mined 80% before entering the clearnet. Difficulty adjustments are per block, so there is no possibility of an instamine unless you don't publish your blockchain (emission is regular at the preset interval, and scales adequately with the network hash rate). What you're accusing monero of is exactly what ByteCoin did.”
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6594025#msg6594025
[Discussion with rias drags on for SEVERAL posts]
-1016: “There is no "dev team". There is a community of people working on various aspects of the coin.
I've been keeping the repo up to date. NoodleDoodle likes to optimise his miner. TFT started the fork and also assists when things break. othe's been working on a GUI. zone117x has been working on a pool.
It's a decentralized effort to maintain the fork, not a strawman team of leet hackers who dwell in the underbellies of the internet and conspire for instamines.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6596828#msg6596828)
-1023: “Like I stated in IRC, I am not part of the "dev team", I never was. Just so happens I took a look at the code and changed some extremely easy to spot "errors". I then decided to release the binary because I thought MRO would benefit from it. I made this decision individually and nobody else should be culpable”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6597057#msg6597057)
[Noodledoodle gets rid of the instaminer accusations]
-1029: “I decided to relaunch Monero so it will suit all your wishes that you had: flatter emission curve, open source optimized miner for everybody from the start, no MM with BCN/BMR and the name. New Monero will be ready tomorrow”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6597252#msg6597252)
[people trying to capitalize mistakes is always there.]
-1030: "Pull request has been submitted and merged to update miner speed
It appears from the simplicity of the fix that there may have been deliberate crippling of the hashing algorithm from introduction with ByteCoin."
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6597460#msg6597460
[tacotime “officially” raises suspects of possible voluntarily crippled miner]
-1053: "I don't mind the 'relaunch' or the merge-mining fork or any other new coin at all. It's inevitable that the CryptoNote progresses like scrypt into a giant mess of coins. It's not undesirable or 'wrong'. Clones fighting out among themselves is actually beneficial for Monero. Although one of them is clearly unserious and trolling by choosing the same name.
Anyway, this sudden solidarity with BCN or TFT sure is strange when none of these accounts were around for the discussions that took place 3 weeks ago. Such vested interests with no prior indications. Hmm...? "
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6599013#msg6599013
[eizh points out the apparent organized fudding]
-1061: "There was no takeover. The original developer (who himself did a fork of bytecoin and around a dozen lines of code changes) was non-responsive and had disappeared. The original name had been cybersquatted all over the place (since the original developer did not even register any domain name much less create a web site), making it impossible to even create a suitably named web site. A bunch of us who didn't want to see the coin die who represented a huge share of the hash power and ownership of the coin decided to adopt it. We reached out to the original developer to participate in this community effort and he still didn't respond over 24 hours, so we decided to act to save the coin from neglect and actively work toward building the coin."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6599798#msg6599798)
[smooth defends legitimacy of current “dev team” and decisions taken]
-1074: “Zerocash will be announced soon (May 18 in Oakland? but open source may not be ready then?).
Here is a synopsis of the tradeoffs compared to CyptoNote: […]"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6602891#msg6602891)
[comparison among Zerocash y Cryptonote]
-1083: "Altcoin history shows that except in the case of premine (Tenebrix), the first implementation stays the largest by a wide margin. We're repeating that here by outpacing Bytecoin (thanks to its 80% mine prior to surfacing). No other CN coin has anywhere near the hashrate or trading volume. Go check diff in Fantom for example or the lack of activity in BCN trading.
The only CN coin out there doing something valuable is HoneyPenny, and they're open source too. If HP develops something useful, MRO can incorporate it as well. Open source gives confidence. No need for any further edge."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6603452#msg6603452)
[eizh reminds everyone the “first mover” advantage is a real advantage]
-1132: "I decided to tidy up bitmonero GitHub rep tonight, so now there is all valuable things from latest BCN commits & Win32. Faster hash from quazarcoin is also there. So BMR rep is the freshest one.
I'm working on another good feature now, so stay tuned."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6619738#msg6619738)
[first TFT apparition in weeks, he somehow pretends to still be the "lead dev"]
-1139: "This is not the github or website used by Monero. This github is outdated even with these updates. Only trust binaries from the first post."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6619971#msg6619971)
[eizh tries to clarify the community, after tft interference, which are the official downloads]
-1140: “The faster hash is from NoodleDoodle and is already submitted to the moner-project github (https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero) and included in the binaries here.
[trying to bring TFT back on board] It would be all easier if you just work together with the other guys, whats the problem? Come to irc and talk like everyone else?
[on future monero exchangers] I got confirmation from one."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6619997#msg6619997)
[8th may 2014, othe announces NoodleDoodle optimized miner is now open source, asks TFT to collaborate and communicates an exchanger is coming]
-1146: "I'll be impressed if they [BCN/TFT shills] manage to come up with an account registered before January, but then again they could buy those.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6620257#msg6620257)
[smooth]
-1150: “Ring signatures mean that when you sign a transaction to spend an output (coins), no one looking at the block chain can tell whether you signed it or one of the other outputs you choose to mix in with yours. With a mixing factor of 5 or 10 after several transactions there are millions of possible coins all mixed together. You get "anonymity" and mixing without having to use a third party mixer.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6620433#msg6620433)
[smooth answering to “what are ring signatures” in layman terms]
-1170: "Someone (C++ skilled) did private optimized miner a few days ago, he got 74H/s for i5 haswell. He pointed that mining code was very un-optimized and he did essential improvements for yourself. So, high H/S is possible yet. Can the dev's core review code for that?"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6623136#msg6623136)
[forums are talking about an individual or group of individuals with optimized miners - may 9th 2014]
-1230: "Good progress on the pool reported by NOMP dev zone117x. Stay tuned, everyone.
And remember to email your favorite exchanges about adding MRO."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6640190#msg6640190)
-1258: "This is actually as confusing to us as you. At one point, thankful_for_today said he was okay with name change: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563821.msg6368600#msg6368600
Then he disappeared for more than a week after the merge mining vote failed.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6645981#msg6645981)
[eizh on the TFT-issue]
-1358: “Jadehorse: registered on 2014-03-06 and two pages of one line posts:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=263597
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=263597;sa=showPosts
Trustnobody: registered on 2014-03-06 and two pages of one line posts:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=264292
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=264292;sa=showPosts
You guys should really just stop trying. It is quite transparent what you are doing. Or if you want to do it, do it somewhere else. Everyone else: ignore them please."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6666844#msg6666844)
[FUD campaign still ongoing, smooth battles it]
-1387: "The world’s first exchange for Monero just opened! cryptonote.exchange.to"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6675902#msg6675902)
[David Latapie announces an important milestone: exchanger is here]
-1467: "image"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6686125#msg6686125)
[it is weird, but tft appears again, apparently as if he were in a parallel reality]
-1495: “http://monero.cc/blog/monero-price-0-002-passed/”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6691706#msg6691706)
[“trading” milestone reached: monero surpassed for first time 0.002 btc price]
-1513: "There is one and only one coin, formerly called Bitmonero, now called Monero. There was a community vote in favor (despite likely ballot stuffing against). All of the major stakeholders at the time agreed with the rename, including TFT.
The code base is still called bitmonero. There is no reason to rename it, though we certainly could have if we really wanted to.
TFT said he he is sentimental about the Bitmonero name, which I can understand, so I don't think there is any malice or harm in him continuing to use it. He just posted the nice hash rate chart on here using the old name. Obviously he understands that they are one and the same coin."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6693615#msg6693615)
[Smooth clears up again the relation with TFT and BMR. Every time he appears it seems to generate confusion on newbies]
-1543: "Pool software is in testing now. You can follow the progress on the pool bounty thread (see original post on this thread for link)."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6698097#msg6698097)
-1545: "[on the tail emission debate] I've been trying to raise awareness of this issue. The typical response seems to be, "when Bitcoin addresses the problem, so will we." To me this means it will never be addressed. The obvious solution is to perpetually increase the money supply, always rewarding miners with new coins.
Tacotime mentioned a hard fork proposal to never let the block reward drop below 1 coin:
Code: if (blockReward < 1){ blockReward = 1; }
I assume this is merely delaying the problem, however. I proposed a fixed annual debasement (say 2%) with a tx fee cap of like 0.001% of the current block reward (or whatever sounds reasonable). That way we still get the spam protection without worrying about fee escalation down the road."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6698879#msg6698879)
[Johnny Mnemonic wants to debate tail emission. Debate is moved to the “Monero Economy” thread]
-1603: “My GOD,the wallet is very very wierd and too complicated to operate, Why dont release a wallet-qt as Bitcoin?”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6707857#msg6707857)
[Newbies have hard times with monero]
-1605: "because this coin is not a bitcoin clone and so there isnt a wallet-qt to just copy and release. There is a bounty for a GUI wallet and there is already an experimental windows wallet..."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6708250#msg6708250)
-1611: "I like this about Monero, but it seems it was written by cryptographers, not programmers. The damned thing doesn't even compile on Arch, and there are several bugs, like command history not working on Linux. The crypto ideas are top-notch, but the implementation is not."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6709002#msg6709002)
[Wolf0, a miner developer, little by little joining the community]
-1888: "http://198.199.79.100 (aka moneropool.org) successfully submitted a block. Miners will be paid for their work once payments start working.
P.S. This is actually our second block today. The first was orphaned. :/"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6753836#msg6753836)
[May 16th: first pool block]
-1927: "Botnets aren't problem now. The main problem is a private hi-performance miner"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6759622#msg6759622)
-1927: "Evidence?"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6759661#msg6759661)
[smooth about the private optimized miner]
-1937: “[reference needed: smooth battling the weak evidence of optimized miner] Yes, I remember that. Some person on the Internet saying that some other unnamed person said he did something hardly constitutes evidence.
I'm not even doubting that optimized asm code could make a big difference. Just not sure how to know whether this is real or not. Rumors and FUD are rampant, so it is just hard to tell."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6760040#msg6760040)
[smooth does not take the "proof" seriously]
-1949: "image
One i5 and One e5 connected to local pool:
image"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6760624#msg6760624)
[proof of optimized miner]
-1953: "lazybear are you interested in a bounty to release the source code (maybe cleaned up a bit?) your optimized miner? If not, I'll probably play around with the code myself tomorrow and see if I can come up with something, or maybe Noodle Doodle will take an interest."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6760699#msg6760699)
[smooth tries to bring lazybear and his optimized miner on board]
-1957: "smooth, NoodleDoodle just said on IRC his latest optimizations are 4x faster on Windows. Untested on Linux so far but he'll push the source to the git repo soon. We'll be at 1 million network hashrate pretty soon."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6760814#msg6760814)
[eizh makes publics NoodleDoodle also has more miner optimizations ready]
-1985: “Someone (not me) created a Monero block explorer and announced it yesterday in a separate thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=611561.0”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6766206#msg6766206)
[May 16th, 2014: a functional block explorer]
-2018: “Noodle is doing some final tests on Windows and will begin testing on Linux. He expects hashrate should increase across all architectures. I can confirm a 5x increase on an i7 quad-core + Windows 7 64-bit.
Please be patient. These are actual changes to the program, not just a switch that gets flicked on. It needs testing.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6770093#msg6770093)
[eizh has more info on last miner optimization]
-2023: “Monero marketcap is around $300,000 as of now”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6770365#msg6770365)
-2059: I was skeptical of this conspiracy theory at first but after thinking about the numbers and looking back at the code again, I'm starting to believe it.
These are not deep optimizations, just cleaning up the code to work as intended.
At 100 H/s, with 500k iterations, 70 cycles per L3 memory access, we're now at 3.5 GHz which is reasonably close. So the algorithm is finally memory-bound, as it was originally intended to be. But as delivered by the bytecode developers not even close.
I know this is going to sound like tooting our own horn but this is another example of the kind of dirty tricks you can expect from the 80% premine crowd and the good work being done in the name of the community by the Monero developers.
Assuming they had the reasonable, and not deoptimized, implementation of the algorithm as designed all along (which is likely), the alleged "two year history" of bytecoin was mined on 4-8 PCs. It's really one of the shadiest and sleaziest premines scams yet, though this shouldn't be surprising because in every type of scam, the scams always get sneakier and more deceptive over time (the simple ones no longer work)."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6773168#msg6773168)
[smooth blowing the lid: if miner was so de-optimized, then BCN adoption was even lower than initially thought]
-2123: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6781481#msg6781481)
[fluffypony first public post in Monero threads]
-2131: "moneropool.org is up to 2KHs, (average of 26Hs per user). But that's still only 0.3% of the reported network rate of 575Khs.
So either a large botnet is mining, or someone's sitting quietly on a much more efficient miner and raking in MRO."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6782192#msg6782192)
[with pools users start to notice that “avg” users account for a very small % of the network hashrate, either botnets or a super-optimized miner is mining monero]
-2137: “I figure its either:
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6782852#msg6782852)
-2192: “New source (0.8.8.1) is up with optimizations in the hashing. Hashrate should go up ~4x or so, but may have CPU architecture dependence. Windows binaries are up as well for both 64-bit and 32-bit."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6788812#msg6788812)
[eizh makes official announce of last miner optimization, it is may 17th]
-2219: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6792038#msg6792038)
[wolf0 is part of the monero community for a while, discussing several topics as botnet mining and miner optimizations. Now spots security flaws in the just launched pools]
-2301: "5x optimized miner released, network hashrate decreases by 10% Make your own conclusions. :|"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6806946#msg6806946)
-2323: "Monero is on Poloniex https://poloniex.com/exchange/btc_mro"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6808548#msg6808548)
-2747: "Monero is holding a $500 logo contest on 99designs.com now: https://99designs.com/logo-design/contests/monero-mro-cryptocurrency-logo-design-contest-382486"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6829109#msg6829109)
-2756: “So... ALL Pools have 50KH/s COMBINED.
Yet, network hash is 20x more. Am i the only one who thinks that some people are insta mining with prepared faster miners?”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6829977#msg6829977)
-2757: “Pools aren't stable yet. They are more inefficient than solo mining at the moment. They were just released. 10x optimizations have already been released since launch, I doubt there is much more optimization left.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6830012#msg6830012)
-2765: “Penalty for too large block size is disastrous in the long run.
Once MRO value increases a lot, block penalties will become more critical of an issue. Pools will fix this issue by placing a limit on number and size of transactions. Transaction fees will go up, because the pools will naturally accept the most profitable transactions. It will become very expensive to send with more than 0 mixin. Anonymity benefits of ring signatures are lost, and the currency becomes unusable for normal transactions.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6830475#msg6830475)
-2773: "The CryptoNote developers didn't want blocks getting very large without genuine need for it because it permits a malicious attack. So miners out of self-interest would deliberately restrict the size, forcing the network to operate at the edge of the penalty-free size limit but not exceed it. The maximum block size is a moving average so over time it would grow to accommodate organic volume increase and the issue goes away. This system is most broken when volume suddenly spikes."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6830710#msg6830710)
-3035: "We've contributed a massive amount to the infrastructure of the coin so far, enough to get recognition from cryptonote, including optimizing their hashing algorithm by an order of magnitude, creating open source pool software, and pushing several commits correcting issues with the coin that eventually were merged into the ByteCoin master. We also assisted some exchange operators in helping to support the coin.
To say that has no value is a bit silly... We've been working alongside the ByteCoin devs to improve both coins substantially."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6845545#msg6845545)
[tacotime defends the Monero team and community of accusations of just “ripping-off” others hard-work and “steal” their project]
-3044: "image"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6845986#msg6845986)
[Monero added to coinmarketcap may 21st 2014]
-3059: "You have no idea how influential you have been to the success of this coin. You are a great ambassador for MRO and one of the reasons why I chose to mine MRO during the early days (and I still do, but alas no soup for about 5 days now)."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6846509#msg6846509)
[random user thanks smooth CONSTANT presence, and collaboration. It is not all FUD ;)]
-3068: "You are a little too caught up in the mindset of altcoin marketing wars about "unique features" and "the team" behind the latest pump and dump scam.
In fact this coin is really little more than BCN without the premine. "The team" is anyone who contributes code, which includes anyone contributing code to the BCN repository, because that will get merged as well (and vice-versa).
Focus on the technology (by all accounts amazing) and the fact that it was launched in a clean way without 80% of the total world supply of the coin getting hidden away "somewhere." That is the unique proposition here. There also happens to be a very good team behind the coin, but anyone trying too hard to market on the basis of some "special" features, team, or developer is selling you something. Hold on to your wallet."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6846638#msg6846638)
[An answer to those trolls saying Monero has no innovation/unique feature]
-3070: "Personally I found it refreshing that Monero took off WITHOUT a logo or a gui wallet, it means the team wasn't hyping a slick marketing package and is concentrating on the coin/note itself."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6846676#msg6846676)
-3119: “image
[included for the lulz]
-3101: "[…]The main developers are tacotime, smooth, NoodleDoodle. Some needs are being contracted out, including zone117x, LucasJones, and archit for the pool, another person for a Qt GUI, and another person independently looking at the code for bugs."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6848006#msg6848006)
[the initial "core team" so far, eizh post]
-3123: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6850085#msg6850085)
[fluffy steps-in with an interesting dense post. Don’t dare to skip it, worthwhile reading]
-3127: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6850526#msg6850526)
[fluffy again, worth to read it too, so follow link, don’t be lazy]
-3194: "Hi guys - thanks to lots of hard work we have added AES-NI support to the slow_hash function. If you're using an AES-NI processor you should see a speed-up of about 30%.”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6857197#msg6857197)
[flufflypony is now pretty active in the xmr topic and announces a new optimization to the crippled miner]
-3202: "Whether using pools or not, this coin has a lot of orphaned blocks. When the original fork was done, several of us advised against 60 second blocks, but the warnings were not heeded.
I'm hopeful we can eventually make a change to more sane 2- or 2.5-minute blocks which should drastically reduce orphans, but that will require a hard fork, so not that easy."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6857796#msg6857796)
[smooth takes the opportunity to remember the need of bigger target block]
-3227: “Okay, optimized miner seems to be working: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=619373”
[wolf0 makes public his open source optimized miner]
-3235: "Smooth, I agree block time needs to go back to 2 minutes or higher. I think this and other changes discussed (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.msg6701490#msg6701490) should be rolled into a single hard fork and bundled with a beautiful GUI wallet and mining tools."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6861193#msg6861193)
[tail emission, block target and block size are discussed in the next few messages among smooth, johnny and others. If you want to know further about their opinions/reasonings go and read it]
-3268: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6862693#msg6862693)
[fluffy dares another user to bet 5 btc that in one year monero will be over dash in market cap. A bet that he would have lost as you can see here https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20150524/ even excluding the 2M “instamined” coins]
-3283: "Most of the previous "CPU only" coins are really scams and the developers already have GPU miner or know how to write one. There are a very few exceptions, almost certainly including this one.
I don't expect a really dominant GPU miner any time soon, maybe ever. GPUs are just computers though, so it is certainly possible to mine this on a GPU, and there probably will be a some GPU miner, but won't be so much faster as to put small scale CPU miners out of business (probably -- absent some unknown algorithmic flaw).
Everyone focuses on botnets because it has been so long since regular users were able to effectively mine a coin (due to every coin rapidly going high end GPU and ASIC) that the idea that "users" could vastly outnumber "miners" (botnet or otherwise) isn't even on the radar.
The vision here is a wallet that asks you when you want to install: "Do you want to devote some of you CPU power to help secure the network. You will be eligible to receive free coins as a reward (recommended) [check box]." Get millions of users doing that and it will drive down the value of mining to where neither botnets nor professional/industrial miners will bother, and Satoshi's original vision of a true p2p currency will be realized.
That's what cryptonote wants to accomplish with this whole "egalitarian mining" concept. Whether it succeeds I don't know but we should give it a chance. Those cryptonote guys seem pretty smart. They've probably thought this through better than any of us have."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6863720#msg6863720)
[smooth vision of a true p2p currency]
-3318: "I have a screen shot that was PMed to me by someone who paid a lot of money for a lot of servers to mine this coin. He won't be outed by me ever but he does in fact exist. Truth."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6865061#msg6865061)
[smooth somehow implies it is not botnets but an individual or a group of them renting huge cloud instances]
-3442: "I'm happy to report we've successfully cracked Darkcoin's network with our new quantum computers that just arrived from BFL, a mere two weeks after we ordered them."
[fluffy-troll]
-3481: “Their slogan is, "Orphaned Blocks, Bloated Blockchain, that's how we do""
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6878244#msg6878244)
[Major FUD troll in the topic. One of the hardest I’ve ever seen]
-3571: "Tacotime wanted the thread name and OP to use the word privacy instead of anonymity, but I made the change for marketing reasons. Other coins do use the word anonymous improperly, so we too have to play the marketing game. Most users will not bother looking at details to see which actually has more privacy; they'll assume anonymity > privacy. In a world with finite population, there's no such thing as anonymity. You're always "1 of N" possible participants.
Zero knowledge gives N -> everyone using the currency, ring signatures give N -> your choice, and CoinJoin gives N -> people who happen to be spending around the same amount of money as you at around the same time. This is actually the critical weakness of CoinJoin: the anonymity set is small and it's fairly susceptible to blockchain analysis. Its main advantage is that you can stick to Bitcoin without hard forking.
Another calculated marketing decision: I made most of the OP about ring signatures. In reality, stealth addressing (i.e. one-time public keys) already provides you with 90% of the privacy you need. Ring signatures are more of a trump card that cannot be broken. But Bitcoin already has manual stealth addressing so the distinguishing technological factor in CryptoNote is the use of ring signatures.
This is why I think having a coin based on CoinJoin is silly: Bitcoin already has some privacy if you care enough. A separate currency needs to go way beyond mediocre privacy improvements and provide true indistinguishably. This is true thanks to ring signatures: you can never break the 1/N probability of guessing correctly. There's no additional circumstantial evidence like with CoinJoin (save for IP addresses, but that's a problem independent of cryptocurrencies)."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6883525#msg6883525)
[Anonymity discussions, specially comparing Monero with Darkcoin and its coinjoin-based solution, keep going on]
-3593: "Transaction fees should be a fixed percentage of the block reward, or at the very least not be controllable by the payer. If payers can optionally pay more then it opens the door for miner discrimination and tx fee bidding wars."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6886770#msg6886770)
[Johnny Mnemonic is a firm defender of fixed fees and tail emission: he see the “fee market” as big danger to the usability of cryptocurrencies]
-3986: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6930412#msg6930412)
[partnership with i2p]
-4373: “Way, way faster version of cpuminer: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=619373”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg6993812#msg6993812)
[super-optimized miner is finally leaked to the public. Now the hashrate is 100 times bigger than originally with crippled miner. The next hedge for "cloud farmers" is GPU mining]
-4877: “1. We have a logo! If you use Monero in any of your projects, you can grab a branding pack here. You can also see it in all its glory right here:
logo […] 4. In order to maintain ISO 4217 compliance, we are changing our ticker symbol from MRO to XMR effective immediately."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7098497#msg7098497)
[Jun 2nd 2014]
-5079: “First GPU miner: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=638915.0”
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7130160#msg7130160)
[4th June: Claymore has developed the first CryptoNight open source and publicly available GPU miner]
-5454: "New update to my miner - up to 25% hash increase. Comment and tell me how much of an increase you got from it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=632724"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7198061#msg7198061)
[miner optimization is an endless task]
-5464: "I have posted a proposal for fixed subsidy:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.msg7202538#msg7202538"
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7202776#msg7202776)
[Nice charts and discussion proposed by tacotime, worth reading it]
-5658: "- New seed nodes added. - Electrum-style deterministic wallets have been added to help in the recovery of your wallet should you ever need to. It is enabled by default."
(https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7234475#msg7234475)
[Now you can recover your wallet with a 24 word seed]
-5726: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7240623#msg7240623)
[Bitcoin Pizza in monero version: a 2500 XMR picture sale (today worth ~$20k)]
-6905: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7386715#msg7386715)
[Monero missives: CryptoNote peer review starts whitepaper reviewed)]
-7328: (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg7438333#msg7438333)
[android monero widget built]
This is a dense digest of the first several thousand messages on the definitive Monero thread.
A lot of things happened in this stressful days and most are recorded here. It can be summarized in this:
  • 28th April: Othe and zone117x assume the GUI wallet and CN pools tasks.
  • 30th April: First NoodleDoodle's miner optimization.
  • 11th May: First Monero exchanger
  • 13th May: Open source pool code is ready.
  • 16th May: First pool mined block.
  • 19th May: Monero in poloniex
  • 20th May: Monero +1100 bitcoin 24h trading volume in Poloniex.
  • 21st May: New official miner optimization x4 speed (accumulated optimization x12-x16). Open source wolf0's CPU miner released.
  • 25th May: partnership with i2p
  • 28th May: The legendary super-optimized miner is leaked. Currently running x90 original speed. Hedge of the "cloud farmers" is over in the cpu mining.
  • 2nd June: Monero at last has a logo. Ticker symbol changes to the definitive XMR (former MRO)
  • 4th June: Claymore's open source GPU miner.
  • 10th June: Monero's "10,000 bitcoin pizza" (2500 XMR paintig). Deterministic seed-based wallets (recover wallet with a 24 word seed)
  • March 2015 – tail emission added to code
  • March 2016 – monero hard forks to 2 min block and doubles block reward
There basically two things in here that can be used to attack Monero:
  • Crippled miner Gave unfair advantage to those brave enough to risk money and time to optimize and mine Monero.
  • Fast curve emission non-bitcoin-like curve as initially advertised and as it was widely accepted as suitable
Though we have to say two things to support current Monero community and devs:
  • The crippled miner was coded either by Bytecoin or CryptoNote, and 100% solved within a month by Monero community
  • The fast curve emission was a TFT miscalculation. He forgot to consider that as he was halving the block target he was unintentionally doubling the emission rate.
submitted by el_hispano to Monero [link] [comments]

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